March 30, 2011
$FFIV - Short Entry or Reversal
Possible short entry as it pulls back to 120.60/21d moving average at 103.89. I'd almost wait to see if it can break this descending trend line. Somewhat of a descending wedge.
$APC ready to move.
While my first entry in APC was on the break of 83.00, I was stopped out which gave me some time reevaluate. Over the past few days it has been holding above 81 and started trading side way creating a flag, allow time for the moving averages to catch up. If you break down to the 30 or 60 minute chart a move above 83.50 or this descending trend line should signal a move higher with stops under that 10dma. A pull in to the 21/50 day moving averages certainly wouldn't be out of the question. Anything is possible.
Trading down today while the market remained strong isn't what I wanted to see. It will remain on my watch list.
10week line sits at 79.40
10sma at 80.98
21sma at 79.68
50sma at 78.83
Showing a lot of support in the 78-80 area.
Trading down today while the market remained strong isn't what I wanted to see. It will remain on my watch list.
10week line sits at 79.40
10sma at 80.98
21sma at 79.68
50sma at 78.83
Showing a lot of support in the 78-80 area.
30min
Daily
$WYNN Swing setting up
Pending the volume is there, I'm look to start a long at 128.00 and add into it above 128.75 for a move back to highs.
30Min. Chart
Traders Ask: How Do You Detect Overconfidence?
SMBtraining.com/blog
Hi guys
After a rotten 12 months I’ve had a cracker of a month not just with the recent bull run but with the preceding drop also. This has occurred after stepping back, refining a trading entry methodology based around volume (exit and money management are already in place) and focusing on this play. Obviously I’m proud of myself, but pride comes before a fall as they say.
Past success runs have often been burnt with a bad run straight after. Can you tell me what techniques you offer your traders to identify signs of overconfidence and over-trading and to keep it (especially overconfidence) in check?
Bella
Great job asking the right questions. Terrific work recognizing a pattern in your past that needs work.
Volatile swings in your P&L can be a danger signal of trading overconfidence. Going from down much more than normal to flat is a very dangerous signal. A big rip is likely coming.
Starting your pre-game preparation later than normal is something to watch. I am doing well I do not need to get in early. There is a fine line between doing very well and underperforming. A slight change in your start time can start a downtrend.
What are some warning signs for you that indicate overconfidence?
Mike Bellafiore
Author, One Good Trade
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